They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. In the main event, former light But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. heritage commons university of utah. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. Instagram did not return a 200. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government,American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. Transcript of What The White House | Happy Scribe The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. The Sporkful on Stitcher The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. Find us at ThisDayPod.com. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. david senak now. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. 04:58 PM. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. FT Podcasts | Financial Times They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. Happy holidays! The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. [00:00:19] The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Dive in and Share your insights! Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. send a tweet. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. robert kraft granddaughter. The Gerrymandering Project - FiveThirtyEight Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. . Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California. Whereas Tester . The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing.

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